In
2000 The Economist magazine painted
the portrait of a continent riddled with corruption, ravaged by conflict,
poverty, debilitated by hunger and disease. Africa was ‘The Hopeless
Continent’. But in 2011, with a cover titled ‘Africa rising’ and an illustration
of a boy flying a rainbow-colored kite the shape of the continent, The Economist magazine released a revised
edition of Africa.
In
the revised edition The Economist magazine
wrote not about the abundance of brutality or disease or poverty in Sierra
Leone. The revised edition was about the pulsating Onitsha market in Nigeria,
with shops stacked high with goods and streets jammed with buyers and sellers.
It was about Africa having a real chance to follow in the footsteps of the Asian
tigers.
The
Economist’s Africa rising saga was preceded by Lions on the move: The progress and potential of African economies,
a 2010 McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report on Africa. The report showed that
the year 2000 was an inflection point, heralding Africa’s growth acceleration
with 27 of its 30 largest economies expanding more rapidly after 2000. MGI
projected that services and products industries, agriculture, extractive
resources and infrastructure could generate $2.6 trillion in revenue by 2020.
In
2012 TIME, with an ‘Africa rising’
title of its own, described Africa as the “world’s next economic
powerhouse”. But it cautioned that
hundreds of millions were at risk of being left behind. Similarly, in its
Africa rising story, the Economist warned that optimism about Africa must be
taken in small doses because things remained exceedingly bleak across the
continent.
That
African economies are on the upswing is undeniable. The cities are throbbing. The
energy and the hustle and bustle in the streets of African cities is tangible. Perpetual
traffic gridlock, chronic water shortages, and eruption of informal housing in
a majority of African cities, underscores the fact that growth has outpaced the
capacity for planning and management. But there is some hope. There is infrastructure
frenzy across many African cities – elevated highways, ring roads and by pass corridors
are under construction – especially to deal with traffic congestion.
But
something else is happening. The rural economy is pretty stuck. The intensity
of rural poverty has not eased. Rural economies are predominantly sustained by
remittances from the cities. Rural infrastructure is in a veritable state of
decline. Agriculture is comatose. Land values are lowest in rural Africa. And
for the most part, most rural landowners do not have land title deeds or proof
of property ownership. So land is essentially dead capital. The returns on
labor and land are too low. Women, who often lack the power to make critical
decisions about land operations or choice of crop or use of technology, manage agriculture.
Moreover,
the burden of disease is highest in most of rural Africa. Infant and maternal
mortality are highest in rural Africa. The prevalence of stunting and other
nutrition related problems are highest in rural areas. It is not surprising
that rural districts have the worst education outcomes. For example, only 16
percent of Kenya’s rural population has post-secondary education. Enrollment,
retention and completion rates in rural schools are deplorable. Numeracy and
literacy scores among children in rural schools are consistently lower than for
children in urban schools. Teacher absenteeism is worse in rural schools compared
to urban schools.
Africa’s
growth is really a tale of two economies. The first economy is the vibrant,
pulsating urban economy. What happens in this economy is what feeds the Africa
rising hysteria. Urban areas are home to the emerging middle class, which has
got the global services and products aficionado all excited about Africa’s
emerging consumer market.
The
second economy is rural. It is largely characterized by socio-economic
stagnation and decline. Over 50 percent of Kenya’s rural population lives below
the poverty line, compared to 33.5 percent in urban areas. Only 3 –10 percent
of Kenya’s rural population works for pay. Describing his community, a young
pastoralist from northern Kenya wrote: “The youth in my community are idle and
mostly indulge in reckless consumption of alcohol. Teen pregnancies are rampant
and young men marry too early.
Inclusive growth and shared prosperity will
depend on adoption of pro-poor policies and public investment aimed at
agriculture and rural infrastructure. Things will remain exceedingly bleak as
long as over 75 percent of Africa’s population is not implicated in the Africa
rising saga.
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