Turkana
County, once the poster child for destitution, could be an economic powerhouse.
Hot on the heels of consequential oil discoveries, Turkana County now holds 17%
of Kenya’s water resources. Major aquifers in Turkana County, Lotikipi, Lodwar,
Gatome, Kachoda and Nakalae store 250 billion cubic meters of water with a
recharge rate of 3.4 billion cubic meters per year.
This
significant groundwater find by Radar Technologies International (RTI) is
consistent with the first quantitative assessment of Africa’s groundwater
published in April 2012 by Alan MacDonald of the British Geological society and
colleagues from University College London. The assessment also revealed that
Wajir and Mandera could have aquifer productivity of the same magnitude as
Turkana. The volume of Africa’s ground water is estimated to be more
than 100 times the annual renewable freshwater resources and 20 times the fresh
water stored in Africa’s lakes.
The
excitement around the Turkana aquifers is palpable. Hunger, drought and
conflict over livestock, water and pasture have plagued Turkana and contiguous
arid lands for many generations. The vast groundwater supplies in Turkana could
be used as a source of irrigation for crops and pasture, or to provide water to
livestock. More significantly, abundant water supplies could help bring peace
and hopefully end violent conflict over resources.
The
discovery of vast groundwater resources in Turkana County is exciting but it also
presents numbing challenges, most of which we are least equipped to deal with. Additional
site-specific assessment of groundwater resources is needed to inform
investments in pumping, reticulation systems and sustainable utilization.
Moreover, groundwater is neither infinite nor invulnerable to pollution or
degradation hence we need to invest in and build capability for monitoring and
regular reporting to achieve an optimal balance between management and
sustainable exploitation. Unregulated large-scale irrigation could trigger
massive land degradation, especially because the mildly sodic soils of this
arid region are prone to salinization. Sodic soils are characterized by disproportionately
high concentrations of sodium. Smart management of fertilizer application will
be needed to avoid nitrate contamination of water resources.
Beyond
the high level excitement in Nairobi about what these aquifers mean for Kenya’s
economic development, what is in this for the local Turkana pastoralist? I postulate
two scenarios.
In the
first scenario Turkana County becomes a hot destination for huge commercial
agricultural interests driven by big money, high technology and buoyed by huge
demand for high value agricultural produce like flowers, vegetables, fruits, pulses,
rice, sugarcane, beef and dairy. This is preceded by high demand for land,
triggering speculation and unprecedented spikes in land prices, motivating local
pastoral communities to sell land. County politicians engage in rent-seeking
behavior. The shift to commercial agriculture invariably alters the local cultural
and socio-economic landscape, with a majority of the local people abandoning traditional
livelihood strategies and moving into urban areas or finding work as unskilled
laborers in the commercial farms.
Large
commercial farms attract investments for infrastructure, especially roads, a
large airport and complex reticulation infrastructure to distribute water. There
is an upsurge of agricultural processing, packaging and allied services. Given
that illiteracy in the region is nearly 60 percent, more skilled people from
outside Turkana County hold a majority of well-paying jobs. Although Turkana
County is rapidly catapulted from periphery to the center the local Turkana
communities are marginalized and are not at the heart of the agribusiness
bonanza. The people of Turkana openly express their discontent and resentment
for “outsiders” who now dominate the thriving city of Lodwar.
In the
second scenario the local communities, with support of the county government
and in collaboration with the central government deliberately engage and plan
the utilization of land and water resources. With the support of the County
government, pastoralist form co-operatives and enter into long-term lease
agreements with large commercial farmers. A majority of these agreements explicitly
require that the large commercial farmers build operate and transfer the farms
to local co-operatives. These agreements include training for local
communities. The County government invests in basic education and middle level
colleges, including a university to support research and extension in irrigation
agriculture, agribusiness and engineering. Thirty years later, large commercial
profitable farms and allied businesses largely owned by the proud and
pluralistic Turkana people.
I totally agree with the second scenario as it would/should benefit the Turkana people. My fear is that the water will be used for oil exploration and the Turkana people will have no direct benefits from either oil or water. The already rich will just become richer.
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