Half
of the world’s 7 billion inhabitants now live in cities. Given the dizzying
pace of urbanization globally, two-thirds of humanity is likely to live in
cities by 2030. Today, about one third of Africa’s 1 billion inhabitants live
in towns and cities. By 2030, this proportion will rise to over 50 percent.
According to a recent UN-HABITAT report the population of Dar-es-Salaam is
projected to grow by over 85% between 2010 and 2025. Here at home in Nairobi,
the population will swell by about 78% over the next 25 years.
A
recent study in local government areas in Lagos, Nigeria revealed that
unemployment, education, avoidance of boredom in agriculture and health reasons
are the major factors influencing rural-urban migration. Such studies have
provided credence to the myth that that provision of social amenities such as
roads, water, electricity, hospitals and schools could keep young men and women
in the villages, hence stem rural-urban migration.
The
bad news is that this myth that rural development is the antidote for rapid,
unplanned urbanization persists in most national development vision statements.
Experience from South Korea is instructive. South Korean President Park Chung
Hee initiated the New Community Movement in the early 1970s. This was a
well-funded programme, which broke up land oligarchies, built great rural
infrastructure, and provided excellent support to small farms. Farm household income increased by 83 percent
between 1970 and 1979, and rural poverty declined from 27.9 percent to just
10.8 percent over the same period.
But
despite rural prosperity, urbanization proceeded at breakneck speed in South
Korea with 83 percent of the population living in cities today. Seoul, South
Korea’s capital city has the world’s fourth highest GDP, hot on the heels of
Tokyo, New York City and Los Angeles. Some scholars have argued that South
Korea has used the massive revenue flows from the cities to fund rural prosperity
initiatives. Better support for rural development, especially agriculture will spur
agricultural productivity but will not stem migration to cities.
In
their seminal book, “The Metropolitan Revolution: How cities and metros are
fixing our broken politics and fragile economy”, Bruce Katz and Jennifer
Bradley argue that a city is not defined by the height of its skyscrapers but
the quality of the ideas it generates, the innovation it stimulates and the
opportunities it creates for its inhabitants. Similarly, Harvard economics
professor Edward Glaeser argues that spontaneous and serendipitous exchanges of ideas
turn cities into vibrant hubs of innovation.
Brookings
Institution, a think tank based in Washington D.C., posit that the vitality of
metropolitan regions is upending traditional state power structures. Here is
some evidence of the rise of the city. Home to under 10 percent of Kenya’s population the
City of Nairobi generates over 45 percent of Kenya’s $42.5 billion GDP. The top
100 American metropolitan areas, home to 65 percent of the population generate
75 percent of the GDP. According to the Cities Special Initiative of McKinsey
& Company 600 cities will generate about two-thirds of the world’s GDP by 2025. Cities and
metros are the real drivers of national fortunes.
The
future will be won or lost in the cities. In our part of the world urbanization
has been largely characterized by deprivation and squalor. Poor housing, poor
sanitation, unemployment, insecurity, hunger, malnutrition and water shortages are
among the most daunting challenges associated with rapid urbanization in
Africa.
Progress
in meeting the challenges of rapid urbanization would be demonstrated by a fall
in the proportion of slum-dwellers, who currently account for 70% of urban inhabitants
in sub Saharan Africa. Getting urbanization right is the defining challenge of
our civilization. How cities fair will therefor determine the success or
failure of every human development priority in Africa. Cities will be
especially vital as engines of job creation, social inclusion, innovation,
productivity and environmental sustainability.
Opportunity
and prosperity in Nairobi and other cities across the country are spread
unevenly. For a majority of Kenya’s “cityzens”, wages are too low, food is
expensive and rent is too high, even in informal settlements. Life for the “cityzen”
is perilous despite new roads and opulent apartments, which have transformed
parts of the city into islands of prosperity in a sea of deprivation. Urban
residents yearn for dignifying jobs and paychecks they can live on, in safe
neighborhoods where children can thrive. But they have no idea how this will
happen. Who is in charge of our cities?
An excellent piece as always. The 'people' are in charge of our cities actually and they are shaping them to suit their needs!
ReplyDeleteBut who gonna shape the people to suit the cities needs?
ReplyDelete