It
is July 9, 2113. The mean global temperature has increased by 4 degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial levels. Reason? One hundred years ago world leaders failed
to pay attention to urgent warnings to curb emissions of heat-trapping carbon
dioxide. The concentration of carbon dioxide today is 800 parts per million,
compared to 400 parts per million in 2013.
Yesterday,
July 8, 2113, the United Nations declared that global food reserves are dangerously
low. Marine fisheries have crushed; agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa has
collapsed under prolonged drought, pests, heat stress and flooding.
Vector-borne diseases chronically debilitate billions of people. Billions of
people are pouring across national borders, displaced by extreme weather. Billions
more are hungry and infirm. East Africa’s savannah based tourism has collapsed
because high carbon dioxide fertilization favored a shift from grassland to
woodland. The Islands of Pemba and Zanzibar have recently disappeared,
including the booming economies of Mombasa and Dar es Salaam.
A new
report, Turn Down the Heat: Climate
Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience, prepared for the
World Bank by the Potsdam Institute of Climate Research and Climate Analytics reveals
that mean global temperatures could increase by 2 degrees Celsius in the next
20 to 30 years. As a consequence, the likelihood of 4 degree Celsius warming being
reached by 2100 has increased.
In
sub-Saharan Africa, climate-related extreme events could reverse economic and
social progress, pushing hundreds of millions below the poverty line. High
temperatures and moisture stress will affect food security adversely. The
report reveals that by 2030, 40% of current maize cropping will no longer be
suitable for today’s varieties. There are indications that yields could
decrease by 15-20% across all crops.
The
report reveals that there is a high likelihood of high intensity rainfall
periods in the Horn of Africa and parts of East Africa, which is likely to,
increase the risk of flooding. Overall, higher drought intensity is projected
for the Great Horn of Africa. The 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa, which was
particularly severe in Kenya and Somalia, is consistent with an increased
probability of long-rains failure under a warming planet. Moreover, increased
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide is likely to accelerate a shift
from grass to woodland savanna, with a likely negative impact on pastoral
livelihoods and economies if pasture–based resources are reduced.
The
connection between extreme weather and decline in GDP has been established. For
example Kenya suffered annual damages of 10-16% of GDP because of flooding
associated with the El Nino in 1997-98 and the La Nina drought of 1998-2000. It
has been shown that both rainfall and temperature have contributed significantly
to poor economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent studies have shown that a
1% increase in the spatial area of a sub-Saharan Africa experiencing moderate
drought correlates with a 2-4% decrease in GDP growth.
The increasing
fragility of natural and managed ecosystems and their services is in turn
expected to diminish the resilience of sub-Saharan Africa’s socioeconomic systems,
leaving them more vulnerable to non climatic stressors and shocks, such as
emerging pandemics, trade disruptions, or financial market shocks. Climate
change is a fundamental threat to economic development and the fight against
hunger, poverty and disease, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. A warmer planet
will exacerbate undernourishment, stunting, undermine educational performance
and cause morbidity and mortality from malaria and other diseases to rise in
just a few decades.
A
report by the United States National Climate Assessment released early this
year admits that the consequences of human induced climate change are now
hitting the country on several fronts including health, infrastructure, water
supply, agriculture and especially more frequent severe weather such as
Superstorm Sandy.
Our
science has brought unequivocal clarity to present and future global climate
change. Climate change can no longer be seen as some future risk, a canister
that can be kicked down the hill. Urgent action to cut down greenhouse gas
emissions is needed now. As a global citizens, individuals, communities
and governments we must respond urgently to curb greenhouse gas emissions and
respond robustly to help our civilization adapt to the unfolding impacts
triggered by past emissions.
All
too frequently, inaction is motivated by the perceived high economic cost of cutting
greenhouse gas emissions. But the cost of inaction or the tranquilizing drug of
gradualism will be incalculable; the collapse of our civilization as we know it
today.
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