"Egypt is the gift of the
Nile." This 5th Century BC pronouncement of Greek Historian
Herodotus was reaffirmed when Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi declared that
his country was keen not to risk losing a “single drop of Nile water” on which
their civilization is based.
Speaking to supporters,
President Morsi declared that Egypt had no intentions to wage war against
Ethiopia but vowed to keep all options open. According to Ayman Shabaana,
political science professor at Cairo University, the Nile is the state and a
threat to the river constitutes a threat to national security.
President Morsi’s remarks came
following a move a by Ethiopian authorities to divert the waters of the Blue
Nile to in advance of its planned $4.7 billion dollar Grand Renaissance Dam. This
will be Africa’s largest hydropower plant, producing 6,000 megawatts of
electricity and creating a reservoir with a capacity of 63 billion cubic
meters.
A report of a tripartite
technical committee comprising Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan has announced that its
findings are inconclusive on the planned dam's effects on Egypt and Sudan.
However, it is estimated that Egypt could lose up to 20% of its “water share”
over the 3–5 years needed to fill the dam. Over the last couple of weeks, bellicose
rhetoric, including talk of hostile acts to force Ethiopia to halt the dam has
raised concerns of conflict over the waters of the Nile.
With an annual discharge of 2,830 cubic meters
per second, just 6% of the mighty Congo River, the Nile basin is worryingly water
constrained. The population of its upstream neighbors are growing rapidly,
fueling increased demand for more water and food. Projections by the UN show
that the combined population of the Nile Basin countries will grow to circa 340
million by 2030. The enduring ghosts of the colonial agreements, which preclude
inclusive upstream cooperation, aggravate this grim reality. The agreements are
absurd. For example, Ethiopia, the source of the Blue
Nile, which contributes an estimated 85% of the Nile River, has no rights over
the water to the extent that it infringes the natural and historical rights of
Egypt in the waters of the Nile.
A 1929 agreement with Britain – representing East
African colonies – gave Egypt the right to veto upstream projects that would
affect its “water share”. With the posturing in Cairo, Egypt is essentially
defending its unbridled historic rights over the Nile waters. The enduring binding nature of the treaty
beyond the British colonial rule is largely because of the compulsory
transmission of all the rights and obligations of the predecessor upstream
colonial state to the successor independent states.
Egypt’s natural and historical
rights over the Nile waters was challenged in 2010 when a new water-sharing
agreement, Nile Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), was signed among six
upstream states, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda Burundi and
Tanzania. Congo and South Sudan have signaled that they will sign the CFA. Last
week Ethiopia's parliament ratified the Nile Cooperative Framework Agreement
(CFA); an agreement intended to replace colonial-era agreements that gave Egypt
and Sudan the biggest share of the Nile waters. Buoyed by this ratification,
Ethiopia has indicated that it is happy to talk with the Egyptians but such
talks would not entertain any consideration to halt or delay the construction
of the dam.
Unanimous agreement and ratification of the CFA has not been achieved largely because of unhelpful inclusion of the nebulous notion of “water security” and the insistence by Egypt and Sudan that Article 14 (b) should obligate upstream states not to adversely affect their water security and current uses and rights. Egypt and Sudan are also unyielding in their demand for early notification mechanism before upstream countries undertake any irrigation or hydropower projects. Egypt wants the CFA to guarantee its access to the historical 55.5 billion cubic meters based on the 1959 agreement with Sudan. Given the enduring colonial legacy, the Nile is the only major river basin without a permanent legal and institutional framework for its use and management.
Herodotus was wrong. All the Nile basin states are the gift of the Nile.
Egypt and Sudan must return to the negotiating table. They must work cooperatively with the upstream Nile basin states on inclusive binding rights and responsibilities, beyond distracting and unattainable delusions such as water security. Relinquishing exclusive rights over the waters of the Nile is the bitter but necessary pill Egypt and Sudan must swallow.
Egypt and Sudan must return to the negotiating table. They must work cooperatively with the upstream Nile basin states on inclusive binding rights and responsibilities, beyond distracting and unattainable delusions such as water security. Relinquishing exclusive rights over the waters of the Nile is the bitter but necessary pill Egypt and Sudan must swallow.
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