The world is on the verge of the greatest
crisis it has ever faced. Worsening water security will have irreversible consequences
on ecosystems, livelihoods and the global economic system.
The ever-expanding water demand of the
world’s growing population and economy is already making water scarcity a
reality in many parts of the world. We are witnessing severe damage to
livelihoods, human health, and ecosystems. It is predicted by most accounts
that by 2013, global water requirements would increase by 40% above current
accessible and reliable supply.
In the
next two decades, global demand for fresh water will vastly outstrip reliable
supply in many parts of the world, especially in the developing world. We are
exerting heavy pressure on river basins and underground aquifers. Moreover,
climate change is predicted to escalate scarcity in water-stressed regions. Global
warming is expected to accelerate melting of glaciers and snow cover upon which
over a billion people depend on for their water.
The
world is increasingly turning its attention to the issue of water scarcity. The
Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) of the USA recently
released a report entitled Global Water Security, which posits that
water supply issues around the globe will lead to economic instability, civil
and international wars, and even the use of water as a weapon in the next
several decades.
Predictions
by the US government and the United Nations show that by 2030 over 30% of the
world population will be living in river basins that will have to cope with
significant water stress, including many of the countries and regions that
drive global economic growth. For instance, water tables in many countries,
including the USA, India and China have dropped significantly in the last 20
years, indicating that we have exceeded our renewable water budget and are
unsustainably mining the resource.
Because
of increasing water scarcity, India’s “green revolution” is being reversed;
crop yields in northern India have fallen in some areas by 15-20%.
Desertification and drought are hurting farmers in northern China, and both
India and China are now significant importers of grain.
Many
regions already experiencing water stress will become more stressed. Water
stress may contribute to the risk of instability and state failure,
particularly when combined with poverty, environmental degradation and governance
incapability. More importantly, regional tensions over shared river basins are
likely to rise. The Nile Basin is a case in point.
Under
British colonial rule, a 1929 treaty reserved 80% of the Nile’s entire flow for
Egypt and Sudan. 75 percent of Egypt’s water is used for agriculture, most of
it wasted by inefficient, old-fashioned irrigation practices. Investors from
China, India and the Persian Gulf region have expressed interest in
underwriting enormous agriculture projects in Uganda and Ethiopia. Increased
upstream water use in the Nile Basin is a potential tinderbox for regional
conflict.
According
to the Global Water Security report, transnational water basin agreements often
do not exist or are inadequate. For example, the report concludes that
mechanism to the govern the Brahmaputra basin and Amu Darya basin (shared by is
"inadequate," and those governing the Tigris-Euphrates, the Nile, and
the Mekong is "limited, while the governance of the Indus and the Jordan
rivers is moderate.
While
climate change will undoubtedly have an increasing impact on water availability
and food production over the coming decades, there are many other factors
including urbanization, changing diets that will increasingly impact water
availability. The growing water gap between
supply and demand is likely to have major ramifications for our planet.
Urgent
national and global action is needed to avert what is evidently an imminent
crisis. What we need is a Blue Revolution. Actions needed to underpin a Blue
Revolution must include:
1.
Access
to high quality data and monitoring networks for water planning and management.
Data is critical for water allocations and also a dynamic picture of the impact
of climate change and additional water use on the water resources and the
environment. If you can’t measure it you cant manage it;
2.
Reform
of water governance by improving determination of water rights and allocation
systems, including innovative systems for valuation, pricing and trade to water
productivity;
3.
Managing
agricultural water demand by increasing in irrigation efficiency, growing drought-resistant
crops and improving soil water holding capacity in rainfed systems;
4.
Managing
urban water demand by increasing recycling and reuse, renovating infrastructure
to reduce urban water losses, which averages 40-60% in many cities and demand
management strategies including technology and pricing;
5.
Promoting
participatory watershed management and market efficiency for environmental
stewardship through coupling water resource management with payments for
ecosystem services.
We must act
to solve the complex and related problems of water security, food security and
global sustainability. And time is of essence!
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