Narrowly
defined, politics is about conflict between or among groups competing to
acquire or retain power. In its broader application, politics defines the
complex relations in a society. It is about who gets what, where, when and how
much.
At
its best, public policy is perhaps the most efficient, transparent way by which
politics allocates public goods and services; roads, water, health centres and
doctors, electricity, schools and teachers. The structure of modern government
is designed ensure responsive design of public policy to guarantee efficient
and equitable allocation of public goods.
But
policymaking is seldom simple. It is a complex enterprise, which must contend
with uncertainty, non-linear feedback and unintended consequences. Any policy
outcome we intend to deliver through public investment is inherently enmeshed
in a complex web of relationships with a legion of determinant factors.
But
policymakers, bureaucrats or politicians, are educated and accustomed to
simple, linear approaches of input and output or cause and effect. An example
of simplistic policy expectations is that free education will invariably expand
access. But we know the consequences of such a well-intended policy
prescription are far reaching. Moreover, free maternity care will not
necessarily raise the number of pregnant women choosing to deliver in a
healthcare centre.
Policy
decisions based partial or incomplete understanding of the context is at best
mediocre or out rightly wrong headed. Consider the policy on free primary
education (FPE), which was introduced in 2003. Some of the unintended outcomes
of this seminal policy include; an (perceived) inexorable decline of quality of
learning as measured by reading, writing and math, and increase in enrollment
and unprecedented rise in tuition.
The
flourishing of private primary schools can be explained partially by the fact
that relatively privileged parents who sent their children to schools in
neighborhood like Kilimani, Kileleshwa and Lavington transferred their children
to private schools, avoiding the influx of children from low-income
backgrounds. Moreover, studies show that when the combined monthly household
income reaches Ksh. 40,000, parents send their children to private schools.
In
this silly election season, the main political groupings Jubilee and NASA have
both promised free secondary education (FSE). Again, the policy intention is
noble – expansion of access and the aspiration to ensure that every Kenyan
child completes secondary education. The cost of educating a child in Kenya’s
top national schools is beyond the means of ordinary families.
What
have we learned from nearly two decades of FPE? Waiving tuition did not
dramatically increase enrollment in primary school. The dominant perception is
that the quality of education is lower in public primary schools. The demand
for and investment in private primary schools sored dramatically with the
introduction of FPE. The glorious era of elite public schools is nigh.
Will
free secondary education raise enrollment without eroding quality or increasing
demand for costly private secondary schools? Like FPE, FSE will likely exacerbate
inequality among Kenyan children by making access to quality education the
preserve of middle and affluent classes.