Global terrorism remains one of the foremost
challenges of our time. In an evil, barbaric attack last Friday, Islamic State
militants struck a concert hall, a stadium, restaurants and bars in Paris. One
hundred and twenty-nine people died, and about 350 were wounded, some
critically. The world is united in grief. Our hearts bleed with the French.
In two weeks, Paris will be the focus of
another urgent global challenge. The world will descend upon Paris to talk
about climate change. The conference of parties of the United Nations
Convention on Climate Change is the largest ritual of global waffle. This 21st
conference is unlikely to be different. This is despite the fact that dangerous
warming is on the march and time is running out.
Dangerous global warming, owing to the rapid
accumulation of greenhouses gases, is linked to our dependence and addiction to
fossil fuels. Moreover, carbon emissions are strongly correlated with economic
growth. The worlds most advanced economies are also the worst polluters. China
and the United States of America lead the pack of the countries that foul our
atmosphere the most.
The positive association between economic
output and greenhouse gas emissions has caused governments in the developing
world to argue that aggressive measures to curb emissions would undermine
growth and prosperity targets. In a sense, every nation feels entitled to pollute
its way to prosperity. Here in Africa, we imagine that our share of carbon
emissions is negligible. Hence, the burden of responsibility for action to curb
emissions and slow down global warming lies with the industrial West and the
advanced economies of Asia.
At every successive conference of parties,
Africans have argued that they are the victims of the adverse impacts of global
warming caused mostly by developed and middle-income economies. Africans have
argued that they are inordinately exposed and hence significantly vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change.
For nearly 25 years, we have known that
urgent action was needed to forestall green house gas emissions and prevent
damaging and irreversible impacts on ecosystems, economies and societies. But
we have failed to take any urgent measures to enable a global shift to a low
carbon economy. Governments and dominant policy makers are not convinced that
there is such a thing as a low carbon, green growth pathway.
Policy wonks and politicians in developed
and developing countries often argue that aggressive action to curb greenhouse
gases will have devastating consequences on economic growth, jobs, and poverty
alleviation. This in my view is bunk; grade “A” idiocy. On the contrary, if we
don’t act now the full and complex impact of climate change could wipe out up
to 20 percent of global GDP annually.
Experts have warned that we are firmly on
the path to a 40 C warmer planet characterized by extreme weather,
unprecedented sea level rise, disease, declining global food stocks,
unprecedented extinctions and loss of biodiversity and associated ecosystem
services. As we go to Paris, we must remind ourselves that even though the
possibility of a globally binding agreement is remote, the stakes are high and
time is running out.
It is hard to imagine an orderly, peaceful
world that is 40 C warmer. In Africa, hungry and infirm citizens
pouring out on the streets, starving refugees waiting cross borders and raging
conflicts over resources, especially water and pasture will push the world into
irredeemable turmoil. Major cities like New York, Vancouver, Hong Kong, and Dar
es Salaam could be washed off the face of the earth. Brutal summer heat waves
will kill hundreds of millions especially in Europe, North America and Asia.
Moreover, the complex feedback effects of a warmer planet are unthinkable.
We are on the precipice of Armageddon. We
must give up our addiction to carbon. This 21st Conference of
Parties must be different. We all must act, individually and collectively to
restore our planet on path of sustainable growth. Our addiction to carbon has
pushed the planet to a calamitous tipping point.
What is wrong with us? Perhaps the threat of
catastrophic climate change is not immediate or concrete. I think The Day After Tomorrow is here! What is
stopping individuals, nations and the global community from acting with fierce
urgency to redeem the world from a path of imminent peril? A green growth path,
with low to zero carbon emission, is no longer an option.
Goodness!!! I wish everyone including our leaders could read this. Apparently, we only think of climate change as a US problem yet climate change is real. With all this analysis, we still have a bunch of climate deniers.
ReplyDeleteAm sharing this and I will not relent to push for action on Climate change. Looking forward to the outcome of COP21 in Paris. Thanks Alex for this piece. I wish we could engage more on this.
My email address is: bettyakinyi08@gmail.com
Regards.