Scientists have
described the “global warming hiatus”, which shows that although global
temperatures were rising, the rate of warming slowed in the last decade.
Skeptics, especially in the United States, have seized this as evidence that
anthropogenic global warming is a myth. Politicians have used this hiatus claim
to justify inaction on green house gas emissions.
However, recent data
shows that global warming has not stalled. In fact, warming has been relentless.
Last year, 2014, was the hottest on earth since 1880. Moreover, the 10 warmest
years have all occurred in the past 1 7 years. This is consistent with the
retreating Artic sea ice, rising sea levels, heat waves and droughts. Atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentration is now estimated at 400 parts per million, about 40 percent
higher than in pre-industrial times.
Twenty years of
global negotiations, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), aimed at slowing the growth of heat-trapping emissions have
yielded limited progress and generated much division between and among the
so-called developed and developing world. Led by China, the developing world argues
that the industrial west exploited global atmospheric resources and powered
their way to unprecedented economic growth and human development. The developed
world maintains that there can be no binding caps on greenhouse gases until
they pollute their way to development.
Hence, the developing
and middle-income economies will not commit to any commitments to cut
greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, the United States will not sign up for a
global agreement, which requires its economy to de-carbonize. The discourse in
the US has been dominated by climate change skeptics and those who ague that
any caps or tax on carbon emissions would confer undue competitive advantage on
China and emerging middle-income economies. Today China happens to be both the
largest economy and the largest emitter of carbon dioxide.
Africa is stuck with
the victim discourse. Africa’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions is low, but
Africa is the most vulnerable region, and because of a myriad geographical,
socio-economic and governance factors it suffers the greatest impact of climate
change. Africa’s agriculture, which employs over 60 per cent of the population,
is especially exposed and sensitive to climate variability. Crop yields in
sub-Saharan Africa could decline by 50 per cent by 2020. Similarly, the
population at risk of water stress is projected to be 75-250 million by 2020. Moreover,
with a projected decline of 25-40 per cent, wildlife conservation and tourism
as we know it today could collapse.
The case for global
cooperation and action to break our addition to fossil fuels, decarbonize
growth and slow down global warming has never been stronger. Last November, in
a dramatic shift in the politics of climate change, US President Barack Obama
and Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to cut emissions. The United States pledged
to cut emissions 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025. China promised to cap its
greenhouse gas output by 2030 or earlier.
One would hope that
this unprecedented leadership by the United States and China could encourage
other countries to make unilateral, nationally determined commitments to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, delivering the much needed momentum and consensus for
a new global climate agreement. But the China-US pledge is not enough to slow
down global warming and avert irreversible damage to livelihoods, economies and
ecosystems.
There is no place
for half-hearted measures. The impact of climate change is not in the future. The
catastrophic impacts of climate change are already here; extreme droughts,
brutal winters, heat waves, rising seas, irreversible ecological damage,
conflict and hunger, emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Delay will
only worsen climate change impacts and make the cost of adaptation
steeper.
Steering the global
economy on a low carbon path presents techno-economic and geo-political
challenges, but also unprecedented opportunities. Against the ravages of
disease our forebears invented medicine. They redefined productivity through two
revolutions and delivered unprecedented leaps in human flourishing.
Our generation has
the opportunity and duty to deliver an energy revolution, end our addiction to
fossil fuels and power a new green global economy. A new global agreement on
climate change must feel the burden of history, rise above narrow national
economic interests, turn down the heat, halt the rising seas and heal a fragile
planet. A new climate agreement must re-set the climate for growth and
development and demonstrate that we can be green and grow.
No comments:
Post a Comment