We live in the
most complex, uncertain and hyper connected epoch in human history. Interdependence
of financial and supply chains present monumental challenges for global
stability.
In 2007 US
Subprime mortgages tanked Asia’s hottest IPO markets, devastated European banks
and hit global hedge funds in emerging markets. According to the World Economic
Forum fragile economies, unsustainable debt and environmental degradation are
the big risks facing the global economy in 2013.
For Africa, this
reality presents a new development context shaped by uncertainty, risk. Vulnerability in one country
begets vulnerability in others in ways that were hitherto unimaginable. Socio-economic
instability and ecological degradation in a single country inevitably reverberates
throughout the continent.
Convergent
economic and environmental challenges will continue to have dramatic impacts on
millions of Africans, jeopardizing progress toward poverty reduction, eradication
of chronic hunger and disease control. High food, energy and commodity prices,
persistent income inequality, climate change and environmental degradation cast
a long shadow on our collective prosperity.
Public policy is the best mechanism we have
designed to deal with collective challenges. Policies are broad statement of
purpose and process for addressing a particular social, economic or
environmental issue. The intent of policy is implemented through regulatory,
economic, expenditure and institutional tools.
American
philosopher, John Dewey, argued that policies must be treated as experiments,
with the aim of promoting continual learning and adaptation in response to
experience over time.
Whether the goal is to address infant
mortality or free education or water and sanitation or energy or agriculture or
conservation, policy-and decision-makers face significant uncertainty. Policies that cannot
perform effectively under dynamic and uncertain conditions face the risk of not
achieving the intended purpose, and undermining the capacity of societies to
cope with or adapt to change.
In a world fraught with uncertainty we need a
resilience approach to policy design and implementation. The concept of
resilience first appeared in ecological lexicon with C. S. Holling’s seminal paper,
“Resilience
and Stability of Ecological Systems” in
1973.
Resilience is the capacity for adaptive renewal through transformation and reorganization
after disturbance.
Resilience
has emerged as an important organizing idea when thinking about policy and
management action appropriate to the magnitude of risk and uncertainty we face
today. The
theme the just concluded 2013 World Economic Forum was “Resilient Dynamism”. Resilience
is now widely used to communicate the idea that a society or economy or ecological
systems have the capacity to absorb shocks and disturbances with minimal
disruption.
Resilience thinking in policy design and
implementation is really about an adaptive approach, which takes into account the
fact that the future is not knowable and manageable. An adaptive approach to
policymaking understands and appreciates dynamics, uncertainty and complexity
of socio-economic and ecological interactions.
An adaptive approach to policymaking could
make societies and economies more resilient to external shock and supple in
response to rapid change and surprise. Some policy scholars have suggested that
we should treat policy making as gardening: muddy, attentive and experiential,
because we have no idea what growing conditions will prevail.
I argue that public policy must be designed
to be more flexible and adaptive, to respond to unanticipated conditions in
order to reduce the risks of policy failure as foundational assumptions of
their design come against the headwinds of change.
Building adaptive policy is not the task of a
single actor or a single sector, no matter how innovative. Rather, building
adaptive public policy, which, are resilient over time, requires building
foresight, forging coalitions across society, decentralizing decision authority
and committing to continual learning.
The capacity of a policy to adapt to
anticipated and unanticipated conditions can be facilitated using some simple process
mechanisms.
1.
Integrated foresight planning and
analysis: Identifying multiple drivers, which determine policy design is
critical to understanding how the implementation and targeted outcomes might
evolve across a range of contexts.
2.
Multi-stakeholder consultation: Collaborative
processes strengthen policy design by providing a comprehensive understanding
of key drivers and recognizing common values, identifying shared commitment and
anticipating emergent issues
3.
Enabling decentralization:
Decentralizing of the authority and responsibility for decision-making to the
lowest effective and accountable unit of governance can enhance policy responsiveness
and relevance to the local context.
4. Continuous learning: Regular review, even when the policy is delivering
its objectives, and the use of well-designed indicators can strengthen
monitoring, and inform policy learning and continual adaptation.
The imperative to reconcile economic, social
and environmental wellbeing has never been more urgent. Moreover, the condition
under which policy-makers must work has never more complex and uncertain. We must
therefore face the future differently by building a resilient society; a
society that responds to change and crisis through continual learning, adaptive
renewal and reorganization.
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