South Sudan's Future: Now the Hard Part:
My sense is that we need look at this against the hard reality of the "state-readiness" of South Sudan. I am not convinced that the south has the human capacity or the infrastructure to be functional as a viable state. The US has been the biggest support of the quest for independence of the south. For the most part, in both the Bush and the Obama administration, the US is committed to checking the advance what America thinks is Islamic fundamentalism.
South Sudan is highly likely to fail under its own weight of managerial incompetence and ethnic rivalry over sharing of resources. It was hard enough for African countries to emerge from the clutch of colonialism, even when most of these countries had a modest number of civil servants, good infrastructure etc. The tragedy is that southern Sudan is coming out something worse than colonialism, African dictatorship.
All I can say that South Sudan is embarking on a most improbable journey and one for which they are least prepared for it is least prepared and a journey that the they do not have the good will of El-Bashir. I think support from the North does matter.
It does not help that the US, South Sudan’s backer in–chief, is strained at home with a stagnating economy and budget deficits and challenged abroad in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Welcome Sudan and good luck. What else can I say?